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class="post-663 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-169 category-parteien category-wahlanalysen tag-brandenburg tag-sachsen tag-wahlnachtbericht">

Die Wahl zum 7. Landtag Brandenburg und 7. Sächsischen Landtag am 1.9.2019


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Eines vorweg: Wahlen sollten nicht an historischen Tagen wie dem 80. Jahrestag des deutschen Überfalls auf Polen abgehalten werden. Bei solcher Geschichtsvergessenheit muss man sich eigentlich nicht wundern, wenn eine völkisch-nationale, autoritäre und rechtsextrem durchwirkte Partei wieder Wahlen gewinnt …

Also in den beiden Ländern wurde ein neuer Landtag gewählt und immerhin ist die AfD nicht zur »stärksten Partei« geworden. Hier kann man wieder meinen Wahlnachtbericht herunterladen, der dieses Mal – Achtung! – drei Anhangs-Dateien hat. Gute Erkenntnisgewinne beim Lesen!


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Veröffentlicht unter 2019, Parteien und Wahlen, Wahlanalysen
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Verschlagwortet mit , , |
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class="post-658 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-169 category-parteien tag-afd tag-landtagswahlen tag-parlamentarische-demokratie">

Ein neuer Zyklus parlamentarischer Politik in Deutschland


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Am kommenden Wahlabend mündet eine fünfjährige politische Übergangsperiode in einen neuen politischen Zyklus. Vor fünf Jahren zog die »Alternative für Deutschland« (AfD) erstmals in zwei Länderparlamente ein. Der Zufall der Wahltermine wollte, dass es sich um Brandenburg und Sachsen handelte und nicht um Baden-Württemberg und Hessen. Bis Oktober 2018 wurde diese Partei in der Regel mit deutlich zweistelligen Ergebnissen in alle weiteren vierzehn Landesparlamente und zur drittstärksten Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag gewählt. Bei den Wahlen zum Europäischen Parlament zeigte sich, dass die AfD ihr bisheriges Wählerpotential nahezu ausgeschöpft hat. Mit dem Wiedereinzug in die Landesparlamente von Brandenburg und Sachsen beginnt nun ein neuer politischer Zyklus. War der vorherige Zyklus geprägt vom Erstaunen der Anderen über das Erstarken einer Partei rechts von der Union, trotz oder wegen ihrer verschiedenen Häutungen in Richtung einer antidemokratischen, autoritär-völkischen Partei, und dem Rätseln darüber, wie ihre Wähler gleichwohl am besten zurückgewonnen werden könnten, so wird der nächste Zyklus von der Erkenntnis geprägt sein, dass die parlamentarische Existenz dieser Partei von Dauer sein wird und es eine nicht unerhebliche Zahl von Bürgerinnen und Bürgern in dieser Gesellschaft gibt, die die politischen Positionen und den Stil dieser Partei gut heißen, teilen und nicht nur billigend in Kauf nehmen. Wie lässt sich dieser neue politische Zyklus charakterisieren? Einige Vorschläge hier:


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Veröffentlicht unter 2019, Parteien und Wahlen
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class="post-652 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-169 category-allgemein category-politik-und-gesellschaft category-strategie-und-klasse tag-fes tag-sozialdemokratie tag-studie">

Sozialdemokratischer Sinkflug unaufhaltsam?


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Information zu einer Studie der Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung

Im Juni stellte die Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung eine in ihrem Auftrag erstellte empirische Studie vor, die sich mit dem Niedergang sozialdemokratischer Parteien in neuen europäischen Staaten befasste. Zu erfassen versucht wurde, inwieweit die Parteien noch ihrem Anspruch gerecht wurden, sich als Mitte-Links-Parteien und »Schutzmacht der kleinen Leute« zu profilieren. Das Ergebnis fiel für einige Länder, so die deutsche Sozialdemokratie durchaus niederschmetternd aus. Die Gründe für das Schrumpfen des Wählerpotentials bestehen danach in einer gewachsenen Kluft zwischen den sozial-, gesellschafts- und kulturkonservativen Erwartungen eines Teils früherer sozialdemokratischer Wählerschaften und dem wahrgenommenen Einsatz der Sozialdemokratie für Themen undGrundsätze, die diesen Schichten besonders wichtig sind. Besonders die Kluft zwischen den persönlich wichtigen Normen und Grundsätzen und der wahrgenommenen Bedeutung, die sie in der Politik der Sozialdemokratie haben, spielt für die Tiefe des Vertrauensverlustes eine Rolle. Diese Differenz ist so beschaffen, dass sie von einer Partei links von der Sozialdemokratie schwerlich zu füllen sein wird. Über die für diese Behauptung wichtigen Aspekte der Studie wird nachfolgend informiert: http://www.horstkahrs.de/2019-07-06-ka-info-mitte-links-fes-studie/


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Veröffentlicht unter 2019, Allgemein, Politik und Gesellschaft, Strategie und Klasse
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class="post-647 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-169 category-allgemein category-wahlanalysen">

Wahl zum Europäischen Parlament in Deutschland am 26. Mai 2019


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Die Stimmen sind auch in den letzten Stimmbezirken Bremens ausgezählt, mein Wahlnachtbericht konnte fertiggestellt werden. Die Bürgerinnen und Bürger haben das deutsche Parteienssystem erneut umgekrempelt. Die Grünen kommen erstmals bundesweit über 20%, die SPD landet weit darunter und die Union unter 30%. Die Linke erstmals seit 2005 wieder mit einer 5 vorne. Der Höhenflug der AfD scheint erstmals gestoppt zu sein, auch wenn sie in Brandenburg und Sachsen zur stärksten Partei wurde.

Mein Wahlnachtbericht:


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Veröffentlicht unter 2019, Allgemein, Wahlanalysen
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class="post-641 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-169 category-parteien category-politik-und-gesellschaft tag-bertelsmann-stiftung tag-europa tag-gesellschaftsbild">

»Europa« im Zangengriff einer Polarisierung? Wie die komplexen europäischen Verhältnisse einfach erklärt werden, damit sich wenig ändert


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Die Wahlen zum Europäischen Parlament vom 23. bis 26. Mai 2019 gelten in weiten Teilen der deutschen politischen Öffentlichkeit als europäische »Schicksalswahl«. Befürchtet wird ein starker Stimmenzuwachs für EU- und Euro-skeptische Parteien im rechten, nationalistischen Parteispektrum und, vor allem, eine neue Qualität in der politischen Fähigkeit dieser Parteien zur Fraktionsbildung im Europäischen Parlament, also zur politischen Formierung. Dagegen wird ein Bekenntnis zu »Europa« mobilisiert, doch dieser Mobilisierung fehlt weitgehend ein entscheidendes Moment: Was müsste sich (an der deutschen Politik) ändern, damit der mehrheitliche Wunsch nach engeren Kooperation in der EU Wirklichkeit werden kann?

Stattdessen wird vielfach eine Polarisierung behauptet, in der sich »Skeptiker« und »Befürworter«, im weiteren dann »Ängstliche« und »Zuversichtliche«, »Verlierer« und »Gewinner« gegenüberstehen, denen dann wieder politische Aspirationen zugewiesen werden: die einen wollen zurück in eine bessere Vergangenheit, die anderen wollen weiter die Welle des Erfolgs in eine bessere Zukunft reiten. Diese Erklärungen bestätigen vor allem eines: ein ökonomistisches Weltbild, in dem es nur um Gewinnen und Verlieren, um Konkurrenz statt Kooperation geht.

Empirische Studien (nicht nur) aus dem Hause der Bertelsmann-Stiftung sollen diese dichotomen Spaltungen als europaweit gültig und das Wahlverhalten leitend belegen. Tatsächlich gelingt das nicht. Vielmehr zeigt sich die Armut empirischer Sozialwissenschaft, die graduelle metrische Unterschiede in qualitative Polarisierungen verwandelt.

Der Blick auf die zugänglichen empirischen Daten offenbart oftmals größere Unterschiede zwischen den Befragten einzelner Länder als entlang der behaupteten Polarisierungen. Auch finden sich die Polarisierungen in den Anhängerschaften aller Parteien wieder und mehrheitlich nur mit graduellen Unterschieden. Nur in wenigen Ländern wie Frankreich ist eine große Übereinstimmung zwischen der Zuordnung zu einem Pol und der Parteiaffinität feststellbar.

Schließlich müssen die Studien selbst zugestehen, dass etwa die Skepsis gegenüber dem Zustand der EU oder der Lage im eigenen Land unterschiedliche politische Auswege kennt. Das Lager der »Besorgten« teilt sich selbst wieder in diejenigen, die mehr sozialen Schutz durch eine stärkere EU wollen, und diejenigen, die auf eine Stärkung des Nationalstaates setzen. Für politische Alternativen zur vorherrschenden Politik wäre dies womöglich der weitaus interessantere Befund.

Die Studien der Bertelsmann-Stiftung wie auch die Befundes des Eurobarometers legen vor allem nahe, sich für einfachen und dichotomischen Erklärungsmustern zu hüten. Tatsächlich lassen sich in der europäischen Vielfalt eher unterschiedliche Gruppen von Ländern ausmachen, in denen sich ein ähnlicher Blick auf die EU herausgebildet hat. Es verbietet sich daher auch deshalb, das Wahlverhalten in den europäischen Staaten bei der Wahl zum europäischen Parlament nach einem einheitlichen Muster erklären zu wollen.

Die Erklärungen aus dem Hause der Bertelsmann-Stiftung tragen den Charakter einer Gegenmobilisierung. Gegen die von Rechten mobilisierte Angst vor »Brüssel« wird die Angst um die liberal-demokratische Zukunft Europas gesetzt: »Europa« ist von außen bedroht durch Protektionismus und die amerikanische Außenpolitik, von innen durch »die Populisten«. 

Mehr hier:


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Veröffentlicht unter 2019, Parteien und Wahlen, Politik und Gesellschaft
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class="post-629 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-169 category-allgemein category-parteien tag-ep-wahlen tag-europa tag-europaische-linke">

Die Europäische Union und ihre Linksparteien vor der Wahl


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Auf der Web-Seite des linken Netzwerkes Transform!Europe finden sich in englischer Sprache eine Reihe interessanter Länderbericht zur politischen Situation für den Wahlen zum Europäischen Parlament:

https://www.transform-network.net/focus/overview/ep-2019-the-european-left-one-mouth-many-voices/

Der Beitrag zu Deutschland erscheint dort in diesen Tagen.

Kein »Rückfall in Nationalismus« – ohne klar europäische Themen und Projekte?

Die Wahl zum Europäischen Parlament 2019 findet in Deutschland am 26. Mai zeitgleich mit der Wahl zum Landesparlament im Stadtstaat Bremen und mit Kommunalwahlen in zehn Bundesländern statt. Bereits 2014 hatte die Zusammenlegung der Wahltermine von EP-Wahl und Kommunalwahl in fünf Ländern dort eine positive Wirkung auf die Wahlbeteiligung. Allein deshalb kann erneut mit einer höheren Wahlbeteiligung gerechnet werden. Gleichzeitig stößt die EP-Wahl selbst bisher auf ein größeres Interesse als diejenige 2014. Die Ursachen hierfür betreffen vor allem (I.) die Veränderungen im bundesdeutschen Parteiensystem seit 2014 und (II.) die allgemeine Stimmungslage in der wahlberechtigten Bevölkerung, die auch von der Sorge vor einen »Rückfall in Nationalismus« getragen ist. Fraglich indes ist, ob und wie die Parteien daraus in ihren Wahlkampfstrategien Nutzen ziehen wollen (III.).
Der vollständige Beitrag, erstellt Anfang April, hier:


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class="post-623 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-169 category-allgemein category-parteien category-strategie-und-klasse tag-arbeiter tag-autoritarismus tag-parteiensystem tag-wahlverhalten">

Transformation und Erosion – Parteiensysteme im Umbruch


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Das sind die Themen der aktuellen März-Ausgabe der Zeitschrift „Z“. Im Editorial heißt es: »Die Welt scheint aus den Fugen. In fast allen entwickelten kapitalistischen Ländern – den USA ebenso wie jenen der EU – zeigen sich ausgeprägte Erosionserscheinungen der traditionellen politischen Systeme. Soziale Desintegrationsprozesse spitzen sich zu, vormals stabile Parteien und Parteiensysteme lösen sich auf, autoritär-nationale Demagogie hat Zulauf. Der Kontrollverlust der politischen und ökonomischen „Eliten“ ist mit Händen zu greifen. „Neue Unsicherheit“ greift um sich. Die Krise der politischen Parteien und der Politik stehen im Mittelpunkt dieser Ausgabe.«

Das vollständige Editorial sowie mein Beitrag »Transformationen des Parteisystems und der autoritäre Nationalismus« hier:


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Veröffentlicht unter 2019, Allgemein, Parteien und Wahlen, Strategie und Klasse
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class="post-618 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-169 category-allgemein category-linke-2 category-strategie-und-klasse tag-europa tag-umfrage">

»Deutschland vor der Europa-Wahl«


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… lautet eine Online-Befragung, die Richard Hilmer von policy matters auf dem Neujahrsempfang der Hans-Böckler-Stiftung am 12. Februar 2019 in Berlin vorgestellt hat. Ausgewählte Ergebnisse mit Blick auf die gesellschaftliche und politische Linke finden sich in einer kommentierten Auswertung hier:

»Die (verbliebene) Basis der (parteiförmigen wie gesellschaftlichen) Linken in den alten, an Bedeutung verlierenden Arbeitnehmerschichten und dem neuen Dienstleistungsproletariat zeichnet sich offensichtlich dadurch aus, dass sie ›sozialen Fragen‹ nicht im Rahmen nationaler Fragen betrachtet. Diese Sichtweise, die Rechte der Arbeit, gegen die Drinnen-Draußen-Logik zu stärken könnte die zentrale Achse sein, die Angehörige unterschiedlicher politischer Milieutypen gegen ein weniger, für ein mehr Europa verbindet.«

Tom Strohschneider hat auf OXI-Blog Erkenntnisse aus anderen Umfragen hinzugefügt: https://oxiblog.de/mehr-eu-die-milieus-der-linkspartei-und-was-neue-studien-sagen/


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class="post-613 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-148 category-allgemein category-parteien category-politik-und-gesellschaft tag-sozialdemokratie tag-spd tag-union">

Nach den Landtagswahlen bleibt alles anders


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Der Wandel der deutschen Parteienlandschaft nimmt nach den jüngsten Landtagswahlen an Geschwindigkeit zu. Die Union trägt einen Richtungsentscheid auf offener Bühne aus, die Sozialdemokratie hat die Rettungsleine immer noch nicht gefunden, die Grünen finden sich unversehens in der Rolle des Gegenpols zur AfD von den Wählerinnen und Wählern geschätzt. Einige Vorschläge, wie das alles zu deuten sein könnte, mache ich hier: Anmerkungen zur politischen Lage.


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class="post-605 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-148 category-parteien category-wahlanalysen tag-hessen">

Schwarz-Grün knapp bestätigt trotz historischem Einbruch bei CDU – Grüne neue Partei der Mitte?


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Der 18. Hessische Landtag ist gewählt, der Ausgang war knapp: Schwarz-grün bekommt 69 von 137 Sitzen, die Grünen liegen vorläufig mit nicht einmal 100 Stimmen Vorsprung auf die SPD auf Platz zwei, die AfD sitzt nun in allen Landtagen und die Linkspartei dümpelt vor sich hin. Hier der vollständige Wahlnachtbericht:
2018-10-29 Ka LTW18 HE WNB


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class="post-597 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-148 category-wahlanalysen tag-bayern tag-landtagswahl">

Wahl zum 18. Bayerischen Landtag am 14.10.2018 – Wahlnachtbericht und erster Kommentar


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Die Bayerinnen und Bayern haben sich einen neuen Landtag gewählt, mit der höchsten Wahlbeteiligung seit 1986, dem schlechtesten Ergebnis für die CSU seit 1954, dem historisch allerschlechtesten für die SPD und vielem mehr – hier in einer um einige Zahlen ergänzten Fassung nachzulesen: 2018-10-14 LTW BY WNB


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class="post-588 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-148 category-strategie-und-klasse tag-arbeiter tag-klassenanalyse tag-statistik tag-status">

»Arbeiter«: Von der Mehrheit zur Minderheit


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Für 2017 weist die amtliche Statistik nicht einmal mehr 18% der Erwerbstätigen als »Arbeiter« oder »Arbeiterin« aus. Ältere Jahrgänge erinnern noch andere Zeiten, in denen nahezu die Hälfte aller Erwerbstätigen in der sozialen Position »Arbeiter« geführt wurde und damit in der dominanten, den gesellschaftlichen Alltag und die »normalen« Lebenseinstellungen prägenden Status-Gruppe. Arbeiter und Arbeiterin war, wer überwiegend körperliche Arbeit verrichtete, im Blaumann statt mit weißem Kragen zur Arbeit ging, die dann auf jeden Fall nicht im Büro verrichtet wurde, und wer dafür meist wöchentlich eine Lohntüte erhielt.

Vom Arbeiter zum Angestellten, das war für viele ein erstrebenswertes soziales Aufstiegsziel. Nun scheint sich die »soziale Flugbahn« des Arbeiters in den entwickeltsten Ländern entscheidend zu senken. Wenn immer weniger die typischen Merkmale des »Arbeiters« aufweisen und sich als solchen im Gegensatz zu anderen Statusgruppen betrachten, welchen Sinn macht es dann noch, in Politik, Wahlforschung und Klassenanalyse vom »Arbeiter« zu reden – wenn damit nicht eine rein analytische Kategorie gemeint ist? Eine kleine Datensammlung zum Thema hier


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Veröffentlicht unter 2018, Strategie und Klasse
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